The Clute Institute for Academic Research

Past studies indicate that students are frequently poor judges of their likely academic performance in the classroom. The difficulty a student faces in accurately predicting performance on a classroom exam may be due to unrealistic optimism or may be due to an inability to self-evaluate academic performance, but the resulting disconnect between expectations and reality can be very discouraging to students and may lead to early attrition. This paper studies undergraduate business students and investigates differences between scores they predicted earning on final exams and scores actually earned. Results indicate that the average student will overestimate an exam score by over five points. Results also indicate that freshmen students, and students with low cumulative grade point averages are likely to overestimate exam scores by the equivalent of a letter grade. Understanding this phenomenon may help educators deal with discouraged students and provide opportunities for faculty to create a learning environment that reduces attrition and ultimately increases student success and graduation rates.